ROUND_16 · SEPANG

Bahrain GP in Malaysia 2026did we call it right?

Before the race we ran this GP 400 times through our engine, starting from the real qualifying grid, and published the odds. The race has now been run: here is the contrast, misses included.

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VERDICT · RACE RUN

What we saidand what happened

Verstappen won from pole, the model's favourite, and the top four finished in the predicted order

The model had Max Verstappen as the favourite on 23.5% of 400 simulations, ahead of the rest of the grid. He won.

3.06

Avg. position error

across 19 finishers

0.80

Order correlation

1 = exact order

7/8

Front of the race

of the predicted top

9/10

Points scorers

called right

Actual	Driver	Grid	Predicted	Diff	Win
1	Max VerstappenRed BullStarted from pole and was the simulation favourite at 23.5%. Won by 2.3 seconds.	1	4.00	-3.00	23.5%
2	Kimi AntonelliMercedesThe model had him second on average position (P4.1) and he finished second. The top four finished in the same order as the forecast.	3	4.10	-2.10	18.5%
3	Lewis HamiltonFerrari	2	4.10	-1.10	16.5%
4	Charles LeclercFerrari	4	4.40	-0.40	12.5%
5	Isack HadjarRed BullStarted 8th after a five-place engine penalty. The model gave him a 0.3% podium chance and an average of P8.6: he finished fifth.	8	8.60	-3.60	—
6	Oscar PiastriMcLaren	6	4.70	+1.30	8.8%
7	Liam LawsonRacing Bulls	11	11.00	-4.00	—
8	Fernando AlonsoAston Martin	12	11.40	-3.40	—
9	Lando NorrisMcLarenStarted fifth and was the model's fifth favourite (12.3%). He lost four places.	5	4.50	+4.50	12.3%
10	Arvid LindbladRacing BullsStarted last after a component change. The model had him averaging P16.2 and he finished tenth, in the points.	22	16.20	-6.20	—
11	Nico HulkenbergAudi	15	15.40	-4.40	—
12	Lance StrollAston Martin	14	17.90	-5.90	—
13	Franco ColapintoAlpine	21	16.60	-3.60	—
14	Oliver BearmanHaas	16	15.10	-1.10	—
15	Esteban OconHaas	17	16.10	-1.10	—
16	Pierre GaslyAlpine	9	12.10	+3.90	—
17	Carlos SainzWilliams	13	12.60	+4.40	—
18	Gabriel BortoletoAudi	10	14.60	+3.40	—
19	Sergio PerezCadillac	20	18.20	+0.80	—
DNF	George RussellMercedesRetired six laps from the end. The official classification has him 20th after completing 49 of the 55 laps, but here he counts as a retirement: he did not finish the race. The model had him seventh with a 30% podium chance.	7	5.20	—	8%
DNF	Alexander AlbonWilliamsRetired after completing 41 laps.	18	16.10	—	—
DNF	Valtteri BottasCadillacRetired after completing 7 laps.	19	18.60	—	—

Where the model got it wrong

Arvid Lindblad predicted around P16.20, finished 10th (6.20 places off).
Lance Stroll predicted around P17.90, finished 12th (5.90 places off).
Lando Norris predicted around P4.50, finished 9th (4.50 places off).
Nico Hulkenberg predicted around P15.40, finished 11th (4.40 places off).
Did not see Arvid Lindblad scoring.

The pattern is clear: the model orders the front of the race well and underrates the midfield, because each car's performance is set per season and does not capture a given weekend's form. That is the biggest known limitation, and the next one to attack.

Official result: Formula1.com. The probabilities were published BEFORE the race and have not been touched since.

The preview, exactly as published

Favourite

Max Verstappen 23.5%

Wins 23.5% of the simulations and finishes on the podium in 56%. Starts P1.

Driver by driver

Grid	Driver	Team	Win	Podium	Points	DNF	Avg. finish
P1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	23.5%	56%	95.3%	4.8%	P4
P2	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	16.5%	49.8%	96.8%	3.3%	P4.1
P3	Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	18.5%	48.8%	97%	3%	P4.1
P4	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	12.5%	43%	97%	3%	P4.4
P5	Lando Norris	McLaren	12.3%	37.5%	98%	2%	P4.5
P6	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	8.8%	34.5%	97.5%	2.5%	P4.7
P7	George Russell	Mercedes	8%	30.3%	96.3%	3.8%	P5.2
P8	Isack Hadjar	Red Bull	0%	0.3%	91.5%	4.3%	P8.6
P9	Pierre Gasly	Alpine	0%	0%	40.3%	6.5%	P12.1
P10	Gabriel Bortoleto	Audi	0%	0%	14.5%	4.5%	P14.6
P11	Liam Lawson	Racing Bulls	0%	0%	56%	3.8%	P11
P12	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	0%	0%	44.8%	3.5%	P11.4
P13	Carlos Sainz	Williams	0%	0%	28%	3%	P12.6
P14	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	0%	0%	2%	3.5%	P17.9
P15	Nico Hulkenberg	Audi	0%	0%	8.8%	5.8%	P15.4
P16	Oliver Bearman	Haas	0%	0%	12%	2.8%	P15.1
P17	Esteban Ocon	Haas	0%	0%	5%	4.5%	P16.1
P18	Alexander Albon	Williams	0%	0%	7.5%	6.8%	P16.1
P19	Valtteri Bottas	Cadillac	0%	0%	0.5%	4.3%	P18.6
P20	Sergio Perez	Cadillac	0%	0%	1.3%	5.5%	P18.2
P21	Franco Colapinto	Alpine	0%	0%	5%	4.8%	P16.6
P22	Arvid Lindblad	Racing Bulls	0%	0%	5.3%	3.3%	P16.2

Opinion · our reading

Verstappen starts on pole and wins only one race in four, and Hadjar misses the podium in the same car

The starting column is the GRID, and it already includes three penalties applied to the qualifying order. Isack Hadjar qualified third and starts eighth for his seventh internal combustion engine. Franco Colapinto qualified fifteenth and starts twenty-first: he carried five places over from Baku, where he caused the crash with Gasly and Norris, and adds ten for a fifth engine. Arvid Lindblad, with a new engine, turbo and exhaust, starts last. Hamilton and Stroll were called by the stewards, but both got away with a warning and keep their places.

Max Verstappen has pole and the model gives him a 23.5% chance of winning: he is the favourite, yet wins fewer than one race in four. Sepang is one of the circuits where starting position counts least in our engine (third among those measured, behind Las Vegas and Paul Ricard), the exact opposite of Baku last week. That is why Kimi Antonelli, starting third, gets 18.5% and finishes ahead of Lewis Hamilton, who starts second on 16.5%: what matters here is race pace, not grid slot.

All the wins go to the top seven: no one else wins a single time in 400 races. The odd case is Isack Hadjar, who has the same car as the pole-sitter and never wins, with a podium in just 0.3% of races. This is where we think the model may be wrong: it sees much less pace in him than in his team-mate, and starting eighth in a Red Bull that is quick here, a podium would be less unusual than the table suggests. Further back, Lindblad and Colapinto, starting at the back, finish around sixteenth on average.

How the model works

The engine accounts for how much starting at the front is worth at each circuit, and nowhere is it worth as much as at Monaco. Since the 2026 Azerbaijan GP that weight is calibrated track by track against the real races from 2014 to 2025; earlier previews ran on a simpler formula that derived it from how easy it is to overtake on each layout. Which is why Max Verstappen comes out favourite at 23.5% without having the fastest car of the season.

A favourite who only wins one race in four is not a broken model: that is what a real Grand Prix looks like. A retirement, a safety car at the wrong moment or a slow stop flips the result, and the engine simulates all of them. That is why 7 drivers have a genuine shot rather than a single name circled in red.

The most interesting column is the average finish: Arvid Lindblad starts P22 and averages P16.2, the biggest gain on the grid: the driver the model thinks is most underrated by where he qualified.

The numbers come from 400 full race simulations (56 laps) with car and driver ratings updated to this point of the season. This is not betting advice and not an official prediction: it is what our model said. The odds were published before the race and have not been touched since: the contrast with the real result is above.

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